Pembridgecap

A Wealth Creation Journal

Author: XC (page 1 of 3)

Live Portfolio – Update #4

What a roller coaster journey I have had with Aimia for the past 2 years. I initially bought Aimia share around CAD 1.3 in Sep 2017. There was a lot of debate around what Aeroplan would look like once it breaks away from Air Canada. My purchase was driven mainly by the insight that the redemption liabilities originated from issuing loyalty points do not carry nearly as much economic value as its nominal value would suggest. As the issuer of your own currency, there are multiple ways to deflate the liabilities denominated in your own currency to effectively zero. Anyhow that debate got resolved when Air Canada bought back Aeroplan for a sweet CAD 450m which more than double Aimia’s market capitalisation at the time.

I sold the majority of Aimia position but kept a sizable 5% position because I believe the activists’ chance of monetising the remaining holdings (such as PLM and Cardlytics) are quite high and the discount to NAV is substantial (30-50%).

Fast forward to the current situation, the activists have taken over the board at Aimia and completed monetization of smaller stakes such as Cardlytics. However, the real value is PLM which is Aero Mexico’s loyalty program. Aimia owns 49% of PLM.

The biggest variable in Aimia’s NAV calculation is the valuation of PLM stake. This valuation is a balance of three factors:

  • The balance of negotiation power
  • How much can Aeromexico realistically afford to pay given its highly leveraged b/s
  • The intrinsic value of PLM

I ranked them in order of decreasing importance. The relative negotiation power of Aimia vs Aero Mexico is the most important driver of the actual value realisation and not the intrinsic value of PLM. It is not clear that Aimia is in a position to push for high valuation because Aeromexico can always opt for the status quo indefinitely. Yes, Aeromexico would have to share the dividend value with Aimia but it would also be very hesitant to add to its already high debt load. Of course, Aeromexico can issue equity to Aimia but this is further compounded by the current coronavirus situation.

My original expectation was that there could be a reasonable chance that Aimia can sell PLM stake at 10x EV/EBITDA multiple. I must admit that this is looking increasingly remote. I still believe that Aimia easily have 20-50% upside from its current share price. However, there is a real opportunity cost to holding Aimia shares as other companies are becoming more attractively priced.

So I have decided to sell Aimia position down to zero at the prevailing market price (CAD 2.2)

Live Portfolio – Update #3

In Feb 2020, I have added to AddCN (0.7%) @ 230 and 6% (Yixin) @ 1.69.

In addition, I have also opened a short position to BITA (-7%). I shorted BITA because of the unique characteristic where BITA’s downside in a case of deal failure is likely to be higher than Yixin. While the Yixin upside (20%) is substantially higher than BITA (~6%). So this creates an attractive situation where I can create a long/short value ratio of 10:3 (Yixin / BITA) to almost fully hedge out the downside risk of a deal failure

Sold ~20% of GAW position at GBP 61.3 because I have another opportunity in the game sector that I would like to deploy capital. Given the current market environment, I think the option value of keeping some cash is very high. So I sold some GAW to make room for the new idea while keeping a healthy cash level.

On another side note, Bill Gates published an article on Coronavirus (Link here) where he advised government around the world to assume that “Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about”.  And then he went to outline measures to combat the virus and highlighted the importance of pre-emptive measures in the emerging markets. Bill is just an amazing human being.

I am put to shame as I have been preoccupied with the opportunity to profit from the market dislocations created by this virus and have not so far thought about how I can help with the pandemic. And frankly, there is probably little I can do anyway. Nonetheless, I am very grateful to people like Bill who are fighting the virus tirelessly. Without them, there would be no recovery and nothing to profit from. So for that, I am very grateful.

With that gratefulness in mind, I will resume my work to find the best opportunities to make money from!

Live Portfolio – Update #2

Make two small adds to Yixin Group (1%) and AddCN (1%) respectively @ 1.64 and 230.

 

Avanza 4Q 2019 Update

Avanza reported strong results and continued to grow its customer base which is up 17% year over year from 837k to 976k in 2019 (Avanza report its customer base in terms of the number of funded customers). A growing customer base is the single most important metric for long term value creation. It demonstrates that Avanza continues to be the most attractive retail investment platform in Sweden. Avanza’s customer base is ~10% of the Swedish population but only has 4.2% market share in the Swedish savings market. Avanza announced the ambition to increase savings market share to 7% by 2025 which means a double of savings capital from SEK ~400bn to ~800bn. This should then translate into a doubling of revenue.

 

Stock brokerage is high switching cost business, especially for retail investors. The high switching cost works both ways – it protects Avanza existing customer base from poaching by other online stock brokers but also deters Avanza’s attack on incumbent financial institutions. Avanza is winning market share because it is the lowest cost broker in Sweden AND provides a user-friendly investment platform.

 

Revenue grew 14% which was mainly driven by net interest income growth. Net profit grew 28% due to lower operating cost growth of 6%. Riksbank decided to go against their peers and raise repo rates in Sweden. The repo rate in Sweden is now at 0%. This has helped to increase net interest income by 70%.

 

The new CEO, Rikard, is very ambitious and continues to build on the customer-focused culture that has driven Avanza’s success in the past.

 

My view on Avanza remains the same: the best value-for-money investment platform in Sweden that has a very user-friendly online platform. It has an incredible mind share with young professionals, and as they progress in their careers, their savings on Avanza will grow too. There are two main optionalities with Avanza:

 

1) interest rate sensitivity where every 1% increase in interest rate will lead to incremental interest income of SEK 300m (2019 net profit is SEK 447m). I don’t count on it for the investment case to work but I consider a very valuable;

 

2) Avanza might grow into an online bank and offer more services to its existing customers hence increase product per customer and then revenue per customers

 

Trading at 36x P/E, Avanza is not cheap. But the strong growth visibility and the long growth runway means that I can be patient. Since my initial purchase in 2017, the stock is up 55% and generated 14.5% annualised return albeit with huge volatility. Over a longer time period, I believe Avanza is a 10-15% annualised return investment with very limited downside risk. Maintain current position and will add if Mr Market presents attractive opportunities to do so.

Live Portfolio – Update #1

Sold all Bitatuo shares and swapped into Yixin group shares. Believe that given the probability of success is the same for two stocks, Yixin clearly offers better risk-reward. Yixin has around 10-20% upside while also offering 15% upside. Bitauto, at current prices, has less than 3% upside but more than 30% of downside.

Live Streaming My Investment Portfolio

I am not sure if there is much benefit to broadcast my portfolio online. But it certainly sounds FUN! I was born in a small village with a very auspicious sounding name which loosely translates to mean a hundred victories. I really love that name and in honour of the village, I am calling my portfolio – Invictus. I hope it also brings me many victories in the years ahead.

I have included here is a breakdown of my portfolio as of 31 Dec 2019 and Invictus’s performance since inception in 2016.

  • Invictus Gross Return is the return after trading cost, admin fees and so on…
  • Invictus Net Return is the return after I applied an artificial fee structure of 0% fixed charge + 20% of the profit above 5% return. Unfortunately, nobody is paying me any fees now but I am determined to change this!
  • While I could not care less about what the index does in any month, quarter, and year, it is the best yardstick to measure performance over the long term

Here is how I will update my portfolio on this blog:

  • Every investment action will be updated here with at most 2-3 days of delay
  • I will try to explain all of my investment decisions as much as possible but no promises here
  • Every 6 months, I will provide a comprehensive portfolio update with performance and detail portfolio breakdown as seen above
  • Every 6 months, I will write a letter to explain my thinkings in more detail

Please feel free to share any feedback/comments with me! Even better if you share an investment idea with me!

Disclaimer: All information and material presented here are based on a virtual portfolio where there might or might not be actual trading activities behind it. The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of investment advice, credit analysis and trading recommendation. The sole purpose of this document is to document general investment thoughts and reflections on different businesses.

 

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