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Games Workshop – 1H 2020 Results Update – The Best Is Yet To Be

07:57

1H 2020 (6 months ending 1st Dec 2019) results were excellent! What a privilege to be a partner in this spectacular business! Especially the kind of hardworking partner where all I have to do is just sit and watch.

The most exciting part of the earnings release was the doubling of the licensing income from GBP 5.5m to GBP 10.7m due to the launch of a new video game. A big part of my investment thesis on GW relies on the increased monetisation of its Warhammer IP beyond just miniatures. While this is a step in the right direction, I fully expect the licensing income to be lumpy and would take years to materialise fully.

In the meantime, the core miniature business is firing on all cylinders….

The revenue grew 18.5% to GBP 148.4m which is above my long term expectation of 10-15%. New games and miniatures release schedule will impact the growth in a specific period. My long term expectation remains unchanged in this regard.

A more detailed study of the revenue growth reveals some encouraging signs. GW breaks down revenue into three channels – Trade, Retail and Online.

Trade channel is 52.6% of the total revenue and growing the fastest at 27.2%. Trade is mostly made up of local mom and pop hobby stores which stocks a variety of trading card and board games such as Magic the Gathering & Catan. These hobby stores are usually the centre of local hobby community which is very similar to GW’s own retail stores. There are 4900 distributors at the end of 1H 2020. The distributor count grew 11.4% and the annual revenue per distributor grew 14.2% to GBP 31.9k. The annual revenue per store for GW’s own retail store is GBP 173k. So there is a 5x gap. Over time, distributors should increase retail sales productivity to close this gap.

Retail channel is 31% of the total revenue and growing at a slower rate of 7.5%. Retail consists of Warhammers stores owned by Games Workshop. The store counted increased by 2.5% while the revenue per store increased by 5% on a YoY basis. Finally, the online channel grew 15.6% and makes up for 16.5% of the total revenue base.

Opening retail stores will help to build brand awareness and seed the initial Warhammer community in a new locality. However, the independent hobby stores is likely to remain the most important driver for revenue growth for the next few years. Because it is uneconomical for GW to open stores everywhere. Online will remain a complementary channel to help fans acquire miniatures that are not stocked in the local hobby store.

Due to the completion of the new factory and optimisation of operational controls, the gross margin has expanded by 2.5% to 69.5%. Different revenue mix of newer vs older miniatures in any one period lead to fluctuating gross margin. Gross margin of an older miniature is higher as the fixed cost of building a plastic mould is amortised over a larger volume. I would expect the gross margin to fluctuate between 67-70%. The core operating profit was GBP 48.5m which was up 37.8% due to the beautiful effect of operating leverage. Core operating profit margin stood at 32.7%.

Investment consideration – at ~GBP 67 per share, GW is valued at roughly 25-28x 2020E earnings. While it is not cheap on a headline basis, I am holding onto my positions due to 1) healthy top-line growth + operating leverage and 2) a very positive prospect on IP monetisation.

Games Workshop – An Investment Fantasy

Games Workshop (GW) is the largest investment (20%) within my portfolio as it is the cheapest and simplest idea that I can find. When GW ownership was first acquired in April 2018, I only committed 5% of total investment funds because I did not fully appreciate GW’s outstanding business quality. Despite the share price increasing from GBP 22.75 to GBP 61 since then, I further increased the investment in GW as my understanding and conviction in the business developed positively. I may be a slow learner, but it is better to be late than never.

GW is the UK-based creator of Warhammer Hobby which makes fantasy miniatures set in endless, imaginary worlds called Warhammer Universe. The Warhammer Hobby involves painting and collecting Warhammer miniatures with rich backstories developed over 500+ Warhammer novels in the last two decades. Fans can form armies with the miniatures to participate in the tabletop wargaming with the rules developed by GW. All miniatures are designed and manufactured in the company’s headquarter in Nottingham. The story writers collaborate with miniature designers and game makers to weave new characters, games and stories seamlessly together. GW generates revenue through the sales of miniature and the royalty income from licensing its intellectual properties (IP) for PC and mobile games.

I think of Warhammer fan base in three categories – Collectors, Gamers and IP fans. The Collectors preoccupy themselves with collecting and painting miniatures because of their design and beauty. The Gamers are passionate about the wargames and strategically acquire miniatures based on their roles and powers in the game. IP fans, fascinated by the Warhammer Universe, mostly enjoy the Warhammer novels. In reality, the fans have one main preference but also participate in other aspects of the hobby in varying degrees. Interestingly, the Collectors make up for 30-40% of GW’s revenue.

While not everyone is a natural fan of the Warhammer, those who carry the Hobby Gene have an innate tendency to become a fan. This love affair between fans and GW was under trial during the period from 2010 to 2015. Under the leadership of previous Games Workshop management, the company had minimal communication with the fan community, shun social medial (because they did not want to deal with criticism from the fans), closed down popular product lines and increased prices excessively to offset a shrinking fan base. During this 5-year period from 2010 to 2015, the revenue shrunk from GBP 126.5m to GBP 119.1m while the net profit declined from GBP 15.1m to GBP 12.3m.

Just when it seems like GW is set on an inevitable slow decline, Kevin Roundtree took over as the new CEO of Games Workshop in 2016. The first thing he did was to reconnect with the Warhammer fan base through the Internet. Then, he reintroduced the popular Warhammer games that fans loved. Most importantly, he makes it easier for fans to get into the hobby by offering lower price point starter sets and simplified the game rules. The fans are elated and came back into the hobby in droves. One fan even commented that “it is like Games Workshop was taken over by someone who actually knows about sales and marketing in the twenty-first century.” Its revenue doubled to GBP 256.6m while its net profit jumped five-fold from GBP 12.3m in 2015 to GBP 65.8m in 2019. This is a testament of the fans’ loyalty towards Warhammer. Few companies can not only keep their customers after years of mistreatment but also win them back with one big gesture.

So why are fans so loyal to Warhammer? Warhammer has a differentiated customer experience that few can match – beautifully designed miniatures with great details, a strong physical network of players, and cleverly crafted fantasy worlds that fans can immerse themselves into. Even as fans complained about GW during 2010 – 2015, they acknowledged GW’s miniature as best in the industry. GW has the unique competence to mass-produce high-quality miniatures in a cost-effective manner because it has years of accumulated manufacturing know-how and the scale to internalise its entire manufacturing process. As the largest fantasy miniature producer, they can cover the fixed cost of investing in customised tools and mouldings. The design team can work closely together with the manufacturing team to push the limits on manufacturing the next best miniatures.

Gamers are going to play the games that have a decent chance of finding another Gamer to play against in the local community; thus it is critical to have a minimum player population size locally. Hence, GW uses its fleet of 500+ physical retail stores to provide physical space for local fans to meet and recruit new blood into local Warhammer communities. Local Warhammer clubs are formed as the fan base grew. It took GW over 30 years to build this physical network of Gamers globally which new competitors will find it hard to replicate.

Put in another way, GW’s moat lies in its physical social network of Gamers. Warhammer – the game – is the equivalent of Facebook – the digital platform – that binds these players together. Each new player joining Warhammer strengthens the social network because it increases the existing players’ probability of finding a good game quickly. Physical social networks are of course inferior to virtual social networks because 1) Gamers cannot have a game whenever and wherever they want, 2) Gamers’ social relationships are not digitalised and hence not accessible to GW, and 3) Gamers’ interactions cannot be stored in a useful format. Nonetheless, the physical social network is still a powerful moat for the business.

Finally, GW’s IP elevates Warhammer above other board games and tabletop games. Most board / tabletop games are hit-driven businesses where new gameplays are easily copied by competitors. Unlike most board / tabletop games, Warhammer fans immerse themselves in the narratives as they collect and play the miniatures. It is a common scene to see Warhammers fans tries re-enact plots from the narratives through the games. Ask any Warhammer fan what they like most about their favourite miniatures, and the reasons usually are the characters’ personalities and their struggles and victories in the narratives. The progress in the narratives will introduce new characters which then is made into new miniatures. The stories give meanings to the lifeless miniatures and emotional bonds are formed when fans project themselves into the characters. This emotional bond with Warhammer drives repeat purchase. Or in the modern business parlance, Warhammer fans have high lifetime value. This strategy is common among other successful media franchises such as Pokémon and Star Wars.

I believe GW’s moat is likely to grow stronger with its unique corporate culture and first-rate management team. GW’s culture is formed by employees who are themselves biggest fans of Warhammer and they come to work here because they love what they do. GW also has a very strong creative culture where people have the creative freedom to try new things. After spending two decades at GW, Kevin, the CEO, is the right steward of company culture. I have come to know him better over the last year. He cares deeply about Games Workshop and he understands the full potential of Warhammer IP. Kevin set up a new media business unit to bring the Warhammer IP into mainstream media. If this is done successfully, the acquisition cost of new fans is going to decrease significantly. One of the biggest investment risks is Kevin’s departure due to some unforeseen reasons.

I value GW in two parts – core earnings from the sale of miniatures and royalty income from IP licensing. Through acquiring new fans and growing spend by existing fans, GW can grow its core earnings by 10-15% annually. I do not need to know precisely the size of the total market to believe that GW has a very long growth runway ahead. Another popular card game called Magic the Gathering has ~ USD 500m in revenue double that of Games Workshop’s revenue. GW has a sizable fan base in China but negligible revenue. I think China can be at least as big as the US which is GBP 100+m (50% of total revenue). On the royalty income side, GW is significantly underearning relative to the strength of its Warhammer IP. It is currently generating GBP 11.4m which is only 5% of its miniature sales. The top media franchises, such as Pokemon and Dragon Ball, make the majority of their income from licensing rather than merchandise sales. Despite paying a hefty multiple of 24x 2020 earnings, I believe we are getting a fantastic bargain because this is a very high-quality franchise with strong growth prospects, under-appreciated IP monetisation potential and strong corporate culture that reinforces its moat with time.

Information Flow – A Force of Nature

I have been going through old interviews by Meituan founder, Wang Xing. He is obsessed with the mechanism of information transmission in our society and technological advances that improves information transmission brings about drastic changes to how people interact and conduct their daily lives. And when people change their ways of conducting daily lives, it usually means formation of new businesses that take advantage of these changes. Incumbent businesses that rely on the older way of information transmission will be left in shatters.

Wang Xing likes to define information technology (IT) as technology that enables the flow of information. So in this sense, just like Internet and smartphones, older technologies such as printing press & books are also IT. In fact, three out of the four ancient Chinese inventions (papermaking, printing, gunpowder and compass) are about IT. Papermaking is about storage of information. Printing is about mass replication of information. Finally compass is about production of geospatial information.

Internet brought about a revolution in terms of information transmission. Not only does it lower the cost of information transmission, it also unlocks new ways to transmit information. For example, social networks built on top of Internet allows information to pass through the network of humans. We share news, products, services, personal experiences with our friends on social network. Direct to consumer businesses have taken advantage of this change. This is challenging the long-held belief that FMCG companies have impregnable moats.

Technology does not just reduce cost of information transmission. They also allow new types of information to be transmitted. For example smartphone allows the individual location information to be transmitted instantly and hence new businesses such as ride-hailing and food delivery platforms to emerge. Smartphones also allow companies like Meituan which is a marketplace for local services such as hairdressers, beauty salons and restaurants to market to potential audiences more efficiently than before. Meituan will show consumers nearby local services based on location information which are most relevant to the user.

The impact of information flow is even more nuanced than just allowing new business models to emerge. I believe that because the digital revolution has brought about reduced communication and management costs which has reduced the transaction costs within a firm. This partly explains why we are seeing companies becoming larger than ever. I don’t think this trend will reverse.

As investors, the appreciation of the magnitude of changes and the path of change can be very lucrative. For example Uber drivers have driven demand for vehicle hires and this demand for rental vehicle has driven fleet sales in Brazil. Since fleet sale is done at wholesale price, this meant that auto OEMs has to accept lower unit price and margin compression.

The increased digitalisation will transform the food industry in the next 10 years. The first step has been the arrival of the food delivery platform which brings food from the restaurants to the consumers. This can happen because the consumer side has been “digitalised” with smartphone. The next step is to digitalise the restaurant. Currently the bottleneck in terms of food delivery efficiency lies with waiting time at the restaurants. Digitalisation of the kitchen will allow the food delivery platform to predict cooking time much more accurately. Then it is about the logistics. Instead of delivering with clumsy human beings, the next step is to deliver with autonomous robots. Eventually, I believe that food production will be centralised and cost of food comes down dramatically. People will continue to go to restaurants for social experiences. But new flats might not have kitchens anymore.

After studying Wang Xing carefully, I am 100% with him that digitalisation will continue to change the society. And the next stage of change is mostly focused on the enterprise side. While Warren Buffett has derided “change” as detrimental to the investors, I think “change” can be quite lucrative if it is misunderstood by most.

Thoughts on great shopping malls

Given the threat of e-commerce making inroads on convenience/time-spend of shopping (innovations such as augmented reality improve online shopping experience further), what makes a shopping mall’s future relatively bright?

On some counts, offline has advantages, on the other hand there’s weak points that need to be minimized. I make a distinction on this basis and call them “pulls to offline” and “lack of push to online”.

Pulls to offline

  • Having a “great experience”
    • Beautiful and clean mall
    • Meeting friends
    • “M’as tu vu” (requires mall to be frequented by many shoppers, ideally local)
    • Day trip allure of a mall: a whole family can enjoy a day off in one place
  • For buying apparel: human advice
    • In-store advice and advice from friends. As online is making in-roads on human advice, I believe friends’ advice is more of a selling point

Lack of push to online

As buying online is efficient w.r.t time spent, this is a weak point for some offline shop. Mitigators:

  1. Easy-to-reach
    • great location close to population with disposable income: an outlet might be a pain to reach in the middle of nowhere versus a shopping centre next to a train/tube station, or simply on the way for tourists walking by
    • population density in the neighbourhood (think city centres)
  2. Access to multiple shops at once
    • Large shopping malls offer time-efficient access to many shops
    • High occupancy rate is a win for consumers as well in this respect
  3. Access to non-shopping stores that consumers need to visit anyway
    • Mall with gyms/restaurants/grocery/barbers
      • the sunk cost of getting to these places near other stores might even make shopping before/after more time-efficient than online shopping. These places might be the next shopping mall “anchors

The points in green are arguments for large shopping malls with many tenants from diverse categories such as gyms that cannot be done online.

If some shopping malls are indeed able to offer a “great experience”, this might even pull more footfall to these outfits over time as leisure time rises around the world.

The best shopping malls are aggregators of great brands for the best consumers. As such, there are some winner-take-all dynamics at play in this weak two-sided network (weak because the network is very local, but luxury brands and shoppers compound the network effect through increased possibility of building long-term relationship).

On property management

Best property managements are therefore long-term thinkers: willing to invest in renovations / repurposing to keep footfall and tenant quality high. For example, buying back shares at 8% current yield might optically look better than making a 7% ROI renovation, while the renovation can avoid atrophy in the type of customers, tenant base indirectly for years ahead.

It seems that the number of retail shops will certainly grow slower versus the growth in retail sales as the weaker brick-and-mortar links get shut out. The highest quality shopping malls meanwhile will still see a change in tenant base as tenants with products that are great to sell online disappear (uniform products with long-tail offerings such as books, films). Experience in managing tenant base is another important treat.

Brand advertising

Some companies such as Apple (Stratechery, Scott Galloway podcast), BMW use beautiful retail stores to raise brand awareness and customer experience. Some other functions that these stores serve besides selling products:

  • advertise brand (a superior physical impression is superior to an ad on a screen; what is in particular interesting is that the human brain better memorizes physical as opposed to digital impressions example 1, example 2). The superior physical interior, product design, aroma can convince the consumer that Louis Vuitton is for example superior to Zara in a way that digital ads cannot.
  • high-end product feature awareness, customer education
  • Genius bars in themselves are a point of differentiation as competitors do not offer this service

In short, these stores are but one piece in a consumer’s product experience. In Apple’s case, an iPhone is not only hardware, but also software (iOS) and experiences such as customer support and trying out new launches of features in Apple stores, underlying again how experience is becoming more important for shopping centres.

Conclusion

The economics of growing sales for brands is permanently changed because of a growing online sales share. Whereas in the past brands grew by growing quantity of offline presence because of the fixed link with sales, today, brands will want to occupy the best offline spots and rather not want to be associated with inferior malls. A “flight to quality” malls seems plausible.

To remain competitive, shopping malls have to pull consumers through strengths and avoid a push to online by remaining competitive on the strong counts of online (convenience, price). Multiple factors require malls to be

  1. In the vicinity of high-density affluent population or transport anchors (metro, train, highway) (time-saver, social aspect)
  2. Beautiful and well-kept (experience)
  3. Diverse tenant base with anchors such as gyms, restaurants that will largely remain offline experiences (time saver)
  4. Big (experience for a whole family)

The advantage that offline offers in terms of branding seems most relevant for luxury brands and hence luxury malls.

As malls ideally aggregate the best brands with local consumers, it is in a sense similar to the newspaper business: you want to own the number one mall in each city.

A major risk concerning e-commerce is that luxury brands themselves might become less important in an increasingly online sales world. We see this with Amazon trying to sell white-labels as consumers increasingly weigh functionality and price over brand as information asymmetry is smaller online (driven by e.g. customer reviews).

TC

Book Summary: The Energy World is Flat by Parilla

I read this book because its author proved to be correct on oil.  This is a non-exhaustive book summary I made last year. In the meantime, other events prove another call in the book: the book predicts convergence of global energy prices: oil has come down and the cheapest natural gas in the world (American) is rising.

The Energy World is Flat offers a refreshing view on the oil market. I found it through one of the better Real Vision interviews with Diego Parilla two years ago. The title is a variation to Tom Friedman’s best-selling book on globalization The World is Flat. Lastly, Diego Parilla and I are alumni from the same oil & gas business school.

I only read the book now as I realized that the author’s first call on the flattening of oil call has already proven profitable. These are the main calls the book makes:

  1. the term curve of oil will flatten
  2. geographic spreads will flatten
  3. spreads between energy equivalent prices of fossil fuels will flatten
  4. oil price volatility will lessen

If we compare the oil term curve between the publishing date (1/1/15) and now, we find that it has flattened considerably.

Chapter 1: the Flattening and Globalization of the Energy World

In the oil shock of the ’70s, oil was displaced for power generation and industrial uses in favour of coal, natural gas, nuclear and others because the primary consideration is price in these industries.

Today, oil still reigns over other fossil fuels for transport purposes despite its higher price (e.g. oil was 10X more expensive per energy equivalent than natural gas in the US in 2012). The main is reason is that oil is exceptionally compact both in terms of volume and weight per energy equivalent. Over the short-term, transport is very price inelastic.

Geopolitical events that created volatility sowed the seeds for more buffers ‘flatteners’: storage, demand destruction, new technologies and discoveries. A result can be found in 2014 when the exceptional combination of the below supply disruptions failed to make the oil price spike (the move was limited to 10$/barrel from bottom to peak).

  1. the arab spring (e.g. disruptions in Libya)
  2. oil sanctions in Iran,
  3. conflicts and disruptions in Sudan, Syria and Iraq

Chapter 2: Lessons from the Dotcom bubble

The tech revolution (and bust) created huge capital inflows that led to miserable investor returns over the cycle. The big winners were consumers that benefited from stranded assets such as fiber-optic broadband.

The revolution of fracking and horizontal drilling is similar. Although there is still a lot of skepticism towards shale for environmental reasons, Parilla draws a parallel with ultra-deep-water drilling that faced critics in the early ’90s but developed into a very safe technology. Peak oil sentiment similarities to the tech revolution includes huge capital investment into:

  1. LNG terminals (requires huge upfront capex)
  2. pipelines (see European and Asian projects)
  3. E&P
  4. demand efficiency

One trap for energy investors is to follow consensus according to Parilla. The sector is driven by extremely optimistic assumptions of demand growth. Every year, demand growth estimates are revised down an average of 15-20% from the January estimates (IEA, OPEC). Since 1998, only one year, 2012, has seen meaningful upward revisions. Main reasons are

  1. optimistic GDP growth estimates
  2. using the rear-view mirror correlation between GDP and energy demand that has been breaking down since 1998

Another parallel with the dotcom boom is the diversified ‘venture capital’ approach. In the energy world a lot of capex is being made in new technologies, with a lot of losers. The mentality for

  • big integrated O&G company boards is to ‘be’ invested in new areas as it looks better on paper
  • investors to be invested in all new areas as “you only need one winner”

Examples in the transportation world are:

  1. compressed natural gas (CNG)
  2. LNG for trucks, trains and ships
  3. electric and hybrid vehicles (EV’s and HV’s)

Note: according to Parilla, governments have delayed EV’s by subsidizing combustion-engine car sales (and bailing out the companies) post-recession by a 6-to-1 investment factor to EV subsidies.

Last parallel: the bubble accelerates the impact of the revolution. The runaway oil price in 2007 set in motion a huge supply response by oil producing and oil consuming countries alike.

Diego warns that a sum-of-the-parts valuation for companies that invest in many fashionable new technologies can be very dangerous with bad capital allocators, as the good parts might subsidize loss-making ones, and that focused companies should be welcomed.

Chapter 3: The 10 Flatteners of the Energy World

Interesting excerpt:

During the super-cyclical run up in corn prices in the 2000s, most commodities were making historical highs, from crude oil, to coal and natural gas, to copper and corn. Correlations had notably increased, which was often used as an argument to justify that speculators were driving prices. And of course, high fuel and food prices were generating inflation and increasing the risk of financial stability. One again, politicians and regulators were quick to blame the speculators. “Food inflation, how dare they?” Corn was considered too expensive and would impact the poor the most and increase inequality. How cynical.

The main reason why corn prices were going up was the surge in demand for corn-based ethanol in response to both high energy prices and the regulated mandates. Corn, which had traditionally been “food and feed”, had become “food,feed, and fuel”. [..] In 2012, following an acute drought in North America, the prices of corn reached historical highs, 400% of 2005 prices. “The speculators are taking advantage of the situation.” Yet, that year over 40% of the physical harvest went to ethanol to “feed” the car. The quantities were mandated by the government as “fuel” forced the demand destruction of “food and feed” via high prices. It was the cattle and hogs who had to change their diet, not the car. By mandate.

Do spot prices converge to futures prices, or is it the other way around? A causality study by Merill Lynch, and Parilla, say futures converge toward the physical fundamentals of the spot market. Speculators will discount future fundamentals in the price. If they improperly discount future risk factors into prices, they will lose money as the future prices converge toward the in-the-future-prevailing spot fundamentals.

TC

Should you invest in franchises or managements? It depends.

Note we wrote this post last year.

Many investors categorize themselves and either say

  • they make judgment call on management or
  • rather focus on the franchise or business (it’s rather cool for some in the value investing church to say not getting to know management is a good thing)

Should we focus on the horse or the jockey?

Investor Robert Vinall is known to focus a lot on management. He believes it’s a hard but important question. Important, because it is difficult to quantify, and therefore there’s less competition from conventional investors and quant funds.

Guy Spier, on the other hand, likes to think of himself as a merely good investor, with lots of limitations, such as judging management. He therefore avoids talking to management. Getting to know managements opens us up to get manipulated by their – often perfect – act.

On bad business turnarounds Warren Buffett has said this:

When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.

While we definitely think there’s great arguments for both point of views, we think the relative importance of analyzing franchises versus managements changes a lot with one critical variable: growth.

Focus on the racehorse and on the show jumping jockey

As the entrepreneurial HBS author of the book Buying a small business often repeats

With revenue growth comes new customers, and with new customers come new (types of) problems

In other words, growth brings change. While changing companies are not necessarily growing (e.g. turnarounds in the above Buffett quote), growing companies are always changing.

Another recent observation I had redrafting this post one year later is that venture capitalists tend to focus much more on the founder or team.

From the above, we make a case for focusing on the franchise in mature companies in markets with stable competitive dynamics.

In fast-growing companies, management becomes much more important as they need to make a lot of judgment calls in execution and capital allocation of growth investments.

In show jumping, the horse needs the jockey.

Lastly, the only competitive differentiator in commodity companies is management (companies with fast-changing circumstances).

We believe there is an opportunity in looking at jockeys in commodity industries as 

  1. investors hate commodity/capital intensive industries
  2. investors are focusing on “great franchises” right now (peak quality?) while growing more sceptical of looking at management 
  3. we believe management can be the (non-durable) competitive advantage for these businesses

While media attention tends to go to the folklore of billionaire jockeys of once-fast-growing start-ups, some examples of great commodity Jockeys: 

  1. Philip Meeson in Dart Group plc
  2. Belgian owner-operator Luc Tack in Picanol and Tessenderlo
  3. Buffett overseeing (mostly incentives) in (re-)insurance operations

We’d love to hear your under-the-radar commodity jockeys and thoughts!

MC & TC

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