Note we wrote this post last year.
Many investors categorize themselves and either say
- they make judgment call on management or
- rather focus on the franchise or business (it’s rather cool for some in the value investing church to say not getting to know management is a good thing)
Should we focus on the horse or the jockey?
Investor Robert Vinall is known to focus a lot on management. He believes it’s a hard but important question. Important, because it is difficult to quantify, and therefore there’s less competition from conventional investors and quant funds.
Guy Spier, on the other hand, likes to think of himself as a merely good investor, with lots of limitations, such as judging management. He therefore avoids talking to management. Getting to know managements opens us up to get manipulated by their – often perfect – act.
On bad business turnarounds Warren Buffett has said this:
When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.
While we definitely think there’s great arguments for both point of views, we think the relative importance of analyzing franchises versus managements changes a lot with one critical variable: growth.
Focus on the racehorse and on the show jumping jockey
As the entrepreneurial HBS author of the book Buying a small business often repeats
With revenue growth comes new customers, and with new customers come new (types of) problems
In other words, growth brings change. While changing companies are not necessarily growing (e.g. turnarounds in the above Buffett quote), growing companies are always changing.
Another recent observation I had redrafting this post one year later is that venture capitalists tend to focus much more on the founder or team.
From the above, we make a case for focusing on the franchise in mature companies in markets with stable competitive dynamics.
In fast-growing companies, management becomes much more important as they need to make a lot of judgment calls in execution and capital allocation of growth investments.
In show jumping, the horse needs the jockey.
Lastly, the only competitive differentiator in commodity companies is management (companies with fast-changing circumstances).
We believe there is an opportunity in looking at jockeys in commodity industries as
- investors hate commodity/capital intensive industries
- investors are focusing on “great franchises” right now (peak quality?) while growing more sceptical of looking at management
- we believe management can be the (non-durable) competitive advantage for these businesses
While media attention tends to go to the folklore of billionaire jockeys of once-fast-growing start-ups, some examples of great commodity Jockeys:
- Philip Meeson in Dart Group plc
- Belgian owner-operator Luc Tack in Picanol and Tessenderlo
- Buffett overseeing (mostly incentives) in (re-)insurance operations
We’d love to hear your under-the-radar commodity jockeys and thoughts!
MC & TC